Saturday, March 31, 2007

The Great Recap Episode, Part 2

Avid anime fans will know what I am talking about when I mention Sunrise Studio.

Sunrise is the studio behind your blockbuster anime hits like Gundam Seed (and its less watchable sequel Gundam Seed Destiny), Mai Hime, Mai Otome and the currently airing Code Geass. Sunrise's anime are populated by a huge cast of characters, all with particular quirks and very distinct personalities.

Sunrise's anime plots are also riddled with fantastical plot twists and one can expect intense emotion (sometimes) from the characters within. Whether it be mechas, magical girls or harems, Sunrise will manage to make any story seem like you're watching an opera (or space opera in the case of Gundam).

But for all its merits, Sunrise has this one huge flaw which is inexcusable: the cheap use of the recap episode. The typical Sunrise anime will be so full of plot twists that the studio despairs over its fanbase losing track of the shenanigans and exploits played out on TV. 'The fans cannot be left behind! They must be periodically updated on what has gone on!'

What spawns from this line of reasoning is the oh-so-often use of that bane known as the Recap Episode. After approximately 10 episodes, Sunrise feels 'obliged' to let its fans have the Recap Episode: its simply a rehash of already aired episodes, edited to look like a summary of the plot highlights, with a voice over to make it all uber-serious (and also to mask the fact that they reused images and scenes). The real fans know though that it is another Sunrise cop-out: the studio is just saving money and stretching the season for what it's worth.

In other words... a sell out (to the hardcore fans, at least).

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Any blog that has been around long enough (and is read often enough) will have been trolled through a search engine, RSS feed aggregator or something similar. I guess my blog is no exception, and since I've started using StatCounter, I've been able to see the search keywords which have led unsuspecting readers to my blog.

Since a free account on StatCounter did not allow me to keep more than a hundred recorded 'pings', I've been diligently keeping a record of the keywords offline. Bloggers out there often have one of those posts where they 'exhibit' these keywords, make funny observations about some of them, and generally boast about their perceived readership (how they get such grandiose notions from the keywords that led to their site is a mystery).

For myself, I guess I am no exception. Therefore, like in any Sunrise anime, my recap post is meant to highlight some of those posts that inadvertently drew the most hits from search engines (the keywords are in italics; my comments are below):

1. The MarkStrat one

"secret of markstrat online"
- this one sounds like a kungfu manual

"how i won markstrat"
- future b-school bestseller if this ever gets written

"what can i apply in real world from what i learnt in markstra"
- in brief: nothing

"markstrat blog"
"markstrat cheat"
- tsk tsk tsk...

"secrets to be successful in the markstrat game"
- there are none: you already have them

"tricks for markstrat"
"hints for markstrat"
- how about hooray for markstrat?

"markstrat wisdom"
- wise indeed...

Sometime last year during my MBA, I did this elective called Market Driving Strategies that is really about all of us playing a simulation called MarkStrat. It proved frustrating to the losing teams playing it that most of us were looking for ways and means to turn things around. I wrote a couple of posts about it.

Little did I expect that there were others like myself out there who had little idea what was going on. But, unlike them, it never occurred to me to troll the blogs for hints on how to win MarkStrat. Some guys did though as is evident above.

In fact, I get most of my random one-time hits from people trolling the net for MarkStrat hints. These guys are quite desperate if they think anyone out there has the answer for them. What's little understood is that MarkStrat isn't about winning it: it's about learning from it (even while losing).

Link to MarkStrat post

2. The Ice Cream Case

"ice-fili what happened"
- you really want to know? You REALLY wanna KNOW???

"wtp ice fili"
- I'm not willing to pay a single cent, mind you. WTP = Willingness to Pay

"ice-fili mba case"
"strategy for ice fili"
- Sell, sell, sell... oh wait that was in March, Buy, buy, buy

"ice-fili advantage"
- phick... phock... phick... game, set, match, ice-fili.

Ice-Fili is this Russian ice cream company that is an interesting example of a former government-owned enterprise rising out of the ashes of the Cold War. The case was written with detailed data and enough information with which to teach a Strategy 101 course.

All your strategy concepts can be covered with the material: Willingness-to-Pay, Value Chain, Cost-to-Serve, Value Delivered, Competitive Advantage, Value Innovation, Five Forces, etc.

Being an oft-used case, I guess there are other b-schoolers out there who troll the net for any information they can glean about it.

That is, again, a problem: there should be no additional information needed to understand the case. The case is written to be self-contained. If any information were to be used at all, it should already be within the case itself.

Anyhow, for the Dec '06ers, Ice-Fili was a bad reminder of a badly taught course: our entire Strategy course was based on that ONE case, to the point where we even had our exam on it. Not one of us was interested in ice cream for a while after...

Link to Ice-Fili post

3. The Great Casino Debate

"seah chiang nee tragedy and the casino debate little speck"
- poor Seah Chiang Nee...

"IR parliament house balakrishnan"
"Vivian Balakrishnan"
- Singapore's favourite eye surgeon became Singapore's least favourite sell-out

"IMPACT OF JACKPOT TAKINGS WITH THE SET-UP OF IR IN SINGAPORE"
- none at all I'm sure... your SAFRA clubs are safe because the uncles and aunties won't be able to afford the entrance fee

"chia teck leng"
"chia teck leng christianity"
- rotting in jail now...

"singaporeans spent at turf club"
- ... to see horses run in circles

"legalized gambling deontology"
- 3 words you'll seldom see next to each other

"Parliamentary speech by Khaw"
- hear ye, hear ye

"legal age for gambling on cruise ships"
- probably lower than the legal age to have sex

"casino AND integrated resort"
- Yes... one and the same, only in Singapore

"effect erosion in genting malaysia"
- not something a non-geologist like me will talk about

"social responsibility activities of genting"
- check back again in your next life

"IR debates in Singapore"
- now we're talking

The extent to which Singaporeans were interested in articles on the casino / IR issue surprised me, even when it is no longer a topic of discussion.

To put things in perspective, I wrote my Ethics essay on the Great Casino Debate in Dec 2006, a whole year and some since the debate raged in parliament and in the media. And prior to the debate, even, the idea was mooted by government leaders, there were hushed whispers about it happening, and there occurred the great hullabaloo about calling them Integrated Resorts (for political reasons).

In any case, I am heartened to find folks out there still looking for information on the IR debate. My own research was based on articles I trolled off the net (most were dutifully referenced and noted in the essay).

The strange thing is that, when the debate was at its most intense, it was already a moot issue: the powers that be had already made the decision. The post-decision consultation was just that: all talk. Hot air for the sake of respectability perhaps.

I hope the debate served as that point in Singaporean history where its people finally understood that they have been hoodwinked by a government that is, up till now, still unwilling to listen without first making up its mind. Things must change. Things will.

Link to Essay on the Great Casino Debate

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Next week: Another recap episode! This time, I want to go into the funnier and less often observed keywords that have led to greyscalefuzz. Stay tuned!

Thursday, March 29, 2007

Letters from Bukit Timah / Frags of our Brothers

I was fortunate to be invited to attend a talk by Singapore's eminent economist, Dr Tan Kee Wee. Dr Tan is the Lilian Too of investors: while Lilian tells you what the stars have to say about the future economy, Dr Tan is more "specific" and "down to earth" in his speculations... i.e. he builds and uses econometric models to predict the future. In a nutshell, Dr Tan might be what you describe as a macroeconomic fortune teller.

Dr Tan's presentations are titled Investment Outlook Seminars and he has been doing them for a long while - Singaporean investors do listen to this sage and act upon his advice. However, what Dr Tan really does well is not tell people what to invest in; what he's good at is in explaining the intricate links between macroeconomic forces and current affairs, and why the world is in the funk it is in because of whose actions. It is a Macroeconomics 101 class that is a tour-de-force through the world shaping economic events of this century.

To illustrate his presentation, he uses movie themes. His theme this time round was inspired by Clint Eastwood's WW2 opus: Letters from Iwo Jima (which follows Flags of Our Fathers). With tongue firmly in cheek (Ed Note: I hate this phrase, but it is just so apt), Dr Tan titles his presentation 'Letters from Bukit Timah'. Following from here, I shall talk about what I understood of Dr Tan's presentation (which was interesting, humorous and a macro refresher for myself).

2006 was a year marked by a further ascent in the Chinese and Indian economies. In effect, the rise of the 2 nations are part of a bigger force known as Globalisation. As with any world moving force, there are both winners and losers in its wake. The winners are your i-bankers and MNC CEOs, who are laughing all the way to the bank because they can all buy low and sell high, that all-important principle. The losers are actually the low wage earners and workers of this world. While productivity has improved, wages have not followed suit. Tough luck workers.

Global Liquidity

Why has the world been able to globalise? It is all due to a phenomenon known as Global Liquidity (see this article to understand what it is; see this blog to know why it's a big deal). in a nutshell, global liquidity results in the world being flushed with too much money (none of which is going to people like you and I though). There were two factors that led to this situation:

1. The sinking of the Nikkei index - the Japanese economy tanked in the early 1990s (from its 40,000 high) and never recovered since then. What the central bank of Japan did was to lower interest rates in response, in the hope of stimulating entrepreneurship and investments (FDI). These macroeconomists all think we are motivated by borrowing rates: the lower it is, the more enticed we are to borrow money to start a business. However, what the lowered interest rates resulted in was a practise known as carry trade, whereby Morgan Stanleyish hawks borrowed in yen (cheaply, because the interest rate is low in Japan) and lend the borrowed funds in a high-interest currency, like perhaps the USD (at that point).

2. The dot-com crash - this had an effect because Alan Greenspan, at that time still Chairman of the Federal Reserves, decided to lower interest rates in the U.S. as well. For what reason? See factor number 1. What Greenspan inadvertently caused though was to make money 'cheap'. With borrowing rates low, the multiplier effect does its part in making more money available in the financial world.

To curb the effects that his action has caused, Greenspan has raised the rates again (this as of 2005 I think), but the effect of that won't be felt until much later. Therefore, the world as it is now is still enjoying (or suffering, depending on your point of view) the effects of global liquidity.

So what happens with money being so liquid is that the developing countries of the world, particularly your biggies like China and India, have a whole lot of USD in their pockets. A country like China is scared to be holding on to too much USD though. Why? Because buying too much USD with RMB will cause the RMB to rise, which will make its goods expensive, which will lower its exports, which means less income (ad infinitum as macroeconomic reasoning goes). So China uses its USD to buy US treasury bonds: low yield but stable returns. This is what every other emerging Asian economy does with its USD, to peg its currency artificially to the USD without causing its goods to cost more. Local Asian banks can thus keep their mortgage rate low and trigger what? You guessed it: property speculation (but that's another story...)

The Dominant Currency and Why no Hyperinflation

Come now to 2007 and we all start wondering why doomsday theorists all think this liquidity is supposedly a bad think. They naysaying economists all say so because too much money leads to that unhealthy economic phenomenon known as hyperinflation (my view of hyperinflation is that it is what makes the money we own as good as toilet paper, and I am not being lyrical here). However, we have not seen hyperinflation occur: Dr Tan says this is because all the money is being held by the ultra-rich (hence we are all not rich; hence we don't over-buy stuff and raise the demand curve; hence prices don't rise; ad infinitum reasoning ala macroeconomic theorists).

So... while there won't likely be hyperinflation (and you can bet your pants that the Fed will do all it can to prevent this by...... raising interest rates), there also won't be an alternative currency emerging anytime soon. The currency of the world is the USD.

Do you know why? Wow, Dr Tan's explanation of this conspiracy (it IS a conspiracy I tell you) totally blew me away. First thing you need to know was that, following WW2, the Bretton Woods Conference resulted in exchange rates around the world to be pegged to the USD, which was at that time based on the gold standard (i.e. you can buy USD and use it, at that time, to exchange for a fixed amount of gold... from Fort Knox I assume). What this did was to make the USD stable as a currency of choice: the European central banks love it, the Colombian drug barons love it even more.

The subsequent collapse of the gold standard and depegging of currencies did not diminish the dominance of the USD though: this was because another some Republican president had, by that time, convinced Saudi Arabia (and subsequently all of OPEC) to sell its oil in USD, and in USD solely. What to do? The oil-producing nations only want USD for their oil, therefore the economies of the world have to hoard USD to buy oil.

Okay, enough of a diversion into the USD as dominant currency. Serious contenders to this useless throne have been the Euro and, previously, the Yen. There might come a day though when the Chinese Yuan may prove to be THE world currency, but that won't be anytime soon (they don't want it either).

Bad for US, Good for ROW (Rest of the World)

So Dr Tan gazes into his crystal ball of an econometric model (200-300 equations of it; according to him, central bank models have >500 equations in their simulations). He predicts that a recession will hit the US in the 3rd quarter of 2007. To most economists, the recession has been looming for long enough: a treasury bond yield curve inversion has been observed for the last one year (see this article for an explanation of the power of this indicator). It is inevitable that it will happen sometime this year.

However, unlike the previous US recessions, emerging economies won't suffer alongside. Why? Because the US is no longer the main market for their goods and services. The world has shifted from doing business with the US to doing business with China and India. Most world trade is nowadays transacted with the Chinese and the Indians. Therefore, a US recession is unlikely to have the same repercussions as before.

On Singapore, Dr Tan says 'go for the champions'. The champs are your pharmaceuticals, financial services firms, building and construction firms (he always says there is a housing bubble building up... we're in the middle of a housing rush), the gaming industry (IR anyone?) and even something like the F1 (yay it's coming here!).

Sidetrack: Do you know that the Singapore economy is engineered to encourage you to SPEND? Spending stimulates the economy and it is what keeps a recession at bay (Macroeconomics 101 stuff). However, there are artificially designed laws which makes us spenders on a cyclical basis: COEs, which make a new car old every 10 years means that you WILL buy a car every decade; en-bloc sales, whereby property values will reach an optimum point every 30 years, this means property must be sold after 30 years (or it will depreciate). The Gahmen... it is very smart indeed.

WAR!

Dr Tan also thinks that there will be war in 2007. Who vs who? This is too easy: the US will attack Iran. (yup, this is starting to sound like a coffeehouse chat, but it REALLY is an economist giving his predictions here).

The big event of 2007 will be the US attacking Iran. The reasons?

1. Iran might have capability to develop nuclear weapons / it has too much influence over Iraq (civil war) / it can choke the Hormuz Straits etc. These are all very familiar doomsday theories which all have their inkling of truth.

2. The more wild reason is that the US wants to do that to protect the USD. Again I was floored by the reasoning, but it made some sense. Oil is sold in USD but there have been detractors in recent history. Prior to the 2nd Iraqi war, Baghdad started to sell oil in Euros. Of course, they got invaded and went back to the USD market.

Teheran has decided of late that it also wants to set up a euro-based oil exchange. This caused alarm bells to go off in Washington, leading to calls for an overthrow of the regime (and here we all think it's all cos the Americans are anti-Islamist).

But why protect the USD? Dr Tan's macroeconomic brain goes into overdrive at this point and explains how the US actually taxes the world economy through the depreciation of the USD. At this point, I thought it was a little too cheem to understand (and google / wikipedia aren't helping here, so I'll save the theory for examination another day).

So... do look forward to the next couple of months to be an interesting time in the Gulf: plenty of missiles in the sky, for sure.

Buy and Sell

Finally, Dr Tan gets to the part where all the crusty Singaporean uncles in the room wake up and prick up their ears: what to do and when.

Dr Tan says:

1. Don't hold the USD... it is going to weaken.

2. Gold is good. Buy gold. It is cheap and it won't depreciate crazily like that stupid paper called money.

3. If you can buy uranium, go buy and hoard it. Prices will go up. (So will your radioactivity and geiger meter count)

4. Buy bonds. But be careful what bonds you buy cos there're a lot of junk bonds floating around. Avoid these. SG government bonds are good though (even with the crappy return)

5. Avoid US stocks - they are weakening. Uncle Sam is like the plague. Buy Chinese stocks. Buy Indian stocks. The stock exchange indices are on a path to the moon and are not looking back (yet). So buy these. In Singapore, go buy trusty Singtel: Dr Tan says it should hit 4 bucks end of the year.

6. Only buy high-end property, not your crappy HDB flat. Also, avoid ulu places like Seng Kang and Yew Tee: they won't be going en bloc in your lifetime, guaranteed. Always always always (and always) look for condos with en bloc potential.

7. And finally... in summary, Sell in March, Buy in June.

And so concludes Dr Tan's investment outlook.



Notes:
1. Lilian Too is a famous geomancer in Malaysia who popularised the art of Feng Shui. She's also an astute businesswoman who profits from selling (IMHO useless) knick-knacks to boost your luck.
2. You can listen to a podcast of an earlier presentation of the same information at this website.
3. Dr Tan's profile and other information regarding his presentation can be found here.
4. Some of the views expressed here are my own and not Dr Tan Kee Wee's. However, all failed attempts at dramatization are Dr Tan's fault - wah lau... don't you think it's corny that he called his talk 'Letters from Bukit Timah'?

Tuesday, March 13, 2007

The Great Recap Episode, Part 1

I guess it is a little late to do one of those New Year's posts. In Dec 2006, it's all fine to talk about how 2006 went for you. In Jan 2007, it's even more poignant to recall the good and bad times that rolled by. By Feb 2007, nobody really cares anymore (they're all smashed by CNY and Valentine's Day).

When it is well into 2007 (March?), nobody writes such retrospective tripe anymore - people just look forward rather than back.

Anyhey, I've got my recap tripe penned away (in longhand and in succinct point form) in my notebook since early Jan 2007. It's no good sitting in that notebook, which is now awash with scribbly blue script, mostly of soundbites captured during interviews that I conducted, and some of those itty-bitty common sense that wise men (and women) dish out to me.

Since it has no place in a notebook (of scribbly throwaway tripe), it shall go somewhere with at least a possibility of some longevity: here on this blog.

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So what defines 2006 for me? We'll go with the following categories.

Places I visited
2006 was the year I visited the most countries ever! (in a single year that is). Of course, my log of visited countries comes nowhere close to the typical INSEADer - crazy travellers, all of them, especially when they descended on Asia - it still meant a watershed in terms of places seen (and money spent).

Where was I last year? In no particular order: Cambodia, France, UK, India, Holland, Thailand, Belgium, Spain, the Czech Republic, Luxembourg, Malaysia, and early in 2007 the Philippines. I was also briefly in the UAE (twice), but that was only in the cavernous Dubai airport (I never got out of there). Also, most of the time, I only visited one city (or the capital city) in the above-mentioned countries. The one with the most visited cities will probably be France, since there was significant driving through much its countryside during my 4 months or so there.

Personal Life
2006 was an upheaval. I gained new friends, and tragically lost a love and lost my grandmother as well. I learnt what it was to manipulate people, and what it felt like to be manipulated as well - I've never felt more used, and I've never been more cunning.

But alas, I never learnt the lesson of guarding one's heart. I've never learnt to harden myself and innure myself against hurt and sorrow. Guess that's why I get hurt and why I sometimes am afraid to care about others. (Ed note: don't write this kind of thing when you know who might read this blog... but who cares right?)

Friends
A year with significant time out of town = less time with friends I've come to loved and cherished. Sure, there were new friends to be had, but I don't think that friendships which lasted for less than a year seriously count: such relationships did not go through that test called TIME. I've lost touch with some good friends, but being home (and somewhat homebound now) has helped build back some of these relationships.

Side note: I felt touched to be invited to a few weddings for this year... it is wonderful when you haven't really spoken to someone in over a year, and the next thing you get is a wedding invitation. Touched.

On another note: For a brief period, my friends were doing the wedding thingy on me: invitations left / right / centre with nary a month to catch my breath. Now, they're doing the kiddy pwn on me: at least 5 friends in the last one year actively made babies (and said bye bye to their sex lives for awhile!), with a couple in the midst of pregnancy and the rest losing sleep and mulling over creative names for birth certificates. Good luck Moms and Dads!

Gawd I'm sooooo jealous of all of you.

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And what of resolutions for 2007? A bit late when it is March to make such pronouncements, but these were heartfelt determined inclinations when they were first penned in Jan:

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Strictly speaking, there are no resolutions. None.

I do have things which I feel I want to achieve for myself in the year 2007. Some personal goals perhaps. However, I do not think that telling myself that I have the resolve to do it in the beginning of the year will mean that I actually do them by the end of the year. It simply means that I don't want to do a self-non-fulfilling proclamation (it's like the self-fulfilling prophecy, but in reverse and applied to meaningless forgettable New Year utterances)

I'll tell you what I feel is a much better approach. Dear readers of my blog (all 10 of you, more or less!), I give you, below, my HOPES for the year 2007:

1) I hope for a job that I can excel in. I hope to see this job for its +ves rather than its -ves. I hope that my work life gets defined by its positive aspects more than its negative aspects, and that I come to appreciate the better aspects of it. (this comes from always having adopted the worst case scenario / outcome outlook with my previous job, which is just SO depressing)

2) I hope to mend fences. Fences with my ex. Fences with people I have offended in the past.

Speaking of which, a particular girl I hope to mend fences with is... ah, let's just say it is this GIRL. Said girl was annoyed by a particular late night activity of mine (which involved me barging into her flat at untold hours of the night demanding to deposit unowned articles of hers while unwillingly letting me in unwittingly witness her in her unflattering PJs - some friends will know who!), and thereafter, showed me what it felt like to get the Subtle Cold Shoulder.

Her style of the Subtle Cold Shoulder was to employ the Photo-Taking Exclusion Principle. Suppose you are in the vicinity of said girl and another girl / guy / whatever. Said girl is your typical camwhore (who isnt?) lugging that ubiquitous digicam on a string around to the whatever event that you're both at. The Photo-Taking Exclusion Principle that she employs will mean that you will SOMEHOW end up helping her take pictures, or be in the vicinity when pictures of her (and whoevers) are being taken, without YOU ever being invited to be in any of them (for more clarification on what it feels to be a victim of this phenomenon, take a look at my theory on the Sour Grapes Syndrome).

By the way, as of March 2007, I think I've mended fences somewhat with said girl.

3) I hope to learn to dance. Rather than just sway to the beat, or spasm on the dancefloor, or tap my foot, it'll be great if I can actually sashay instead. Salsa will probably be the way to go on this, but I do prefer going with someone I know though.

Ed Note: I'm afraid I'm putting this on hold for the moment while I get over this gymming phase-craze I'm currently into.

4) I hope to travel, and I hope to travel at someone else's expense, i.e. I don't spend anything on airfare, food, lodging. I guess this means I get a job and get paid to go places (and hopefully sneak off once in a while to shoot pictures!). I hope to see more of this wonderful world, and I hope to document more of what I see in pictures. I hope and I hope and I hope of all things that this will be something that can actually happen in 2007.

5) Of course, I always hope to write more - and to perhaps also explore whether I have any aptitude in this area. I love to put my thoughts on paper (online more than on paper these days). The problem is that I don't exactly have an 'angle', nor do I stand out amidst the rabble of bloggers out there (ranting and raving their very best). It's like, people blog about somewhat particular niches of experiences, while I talk about all and sundry (and dirty laundry to boot). So while this remains a hope, it is something I hope to have a little recognition for.

I can hope, can't I?

Happy 2007 (3 months in)



Notes:
1. Getting the Subtle Cold Shoulder (SCS) is a little unlike the Cold Shoulder. Getting the Subtle Cold Shoulder is like being in a social situation with the SCS-deliverer (and some other friends) who, through her actions / words / body language, cut you out of the pack you both hang out with. This is usually done in such an undetected manner that both victim and the pack don't come to realise it until the victim start feeling left out (in certain social proceedings, one of which is the camwhoring).
2. The Photo-Taking Exclusion Principle (PTEP) is applied whenever a group photo is being taken, and a particular member or 2 of the group is excluded from it, usually intentionally. The principle is sometimes applied for practical purposes (the group is too large to fit in the shot, someone is not present at supposed group activity), but is on occasion a hint of the Subtle Cold Shoulder being applied. Group-camwhoring is one of those social occasions when PTEP can rear its ugly head, particularly weeks down the road when pockets of the group get together to view photos (on the yearbook, Flickr, albums, wherever); the excluded often feel pangs of unease at being unphotoed.
3. Yes, I do like to come up with stupid, silly acronyms to describe social situations which probably don't happen to everybody. But hey, it's my blog right? That argument always wins. :)