How deep does the Rabbit Hole go?

It's been a while.

That's all I got to say on the subject of my tardiness.

Now on to the main course.

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Firstly, the update. For the last 3.5 months, I was working away at a search firm / recruitment agency / headhunter (choose your description) interacting with a lot of people and generally getting a handle on the recruitment industry in Singapore. Also, I started seeing signs that the famed 'Employees' market' is back again: candidates show up with multiple job offers and companies are getting pressed to hire as quickly as possible (to stem outflows and offer rejections). What has not changed though were the salaries: they do not accurately reflect this demand.

So, that fun time at the search firm lasted until a kickass consultancy offered me a 3-month contract with them. It was not the most lucrative offer that an MBA can get, but it was good enough to entice me to join them. I had talked to them since last November and the expectations were rather clear in terms of compensation and work (the work is exciting stuff - strategy consulting always is). Thus, I took the plunge: I ate the red pill and took a dive down the rabbit hole to see how deep it goes.

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It goes deep south, far enough for me to be currently in Melbourne. Today (30 Apr) happened to be my first day at work (not counting the 2-3 hours at the project kickoff and that office party event, which were before my official start date). I had barely left the search firm (last Friday) and found myself on a plane Sunday night headed towards Melbourne. There was the inkling of an idea what the project was about (a Market Research thingy), but largely, all I was doing was heading to Australia with little idea what I was meant to do there.

Sitting pretty in the hotel room now, I can't help but wonder if this is what my worklife is going to be for a while: travelling at short notice to strange places and seeing a lot of airports, the inside of taxis, and intimately knowing the interiors of the hotel room (oh carpet, you're so fine!). The consulting life is going to be like this for a while... which is great! I never got to travel much at my last job.

Melbourne also affords me the opportunity to see my sis. It also afforded my dad and mum the opportunity to pile my luggage with stuff they want me to send to her (at last count, this was a headset with microphone, a couple of MicroSD cards, and some baby stuff for her bf's niece). We haven't caught up yet but I reckon I might take part of the weekend to do that. We shall see.

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On another note, I'm not sure I will be able to write much anymore. The following reasons are all why I haven't updated this blog for the whole month of April (btw, this post is backdated to 30 Apr so I have something in April... it was written on Labour Day... which is NOT a holiday in Australia):

1. Anime - Spring's offerings have intrigued me: I started on about 7 new animes that came out for the Spring season and have followed every one of them up until at least episode 3 or 4. Each anime takes up about 25 mins and this meant that time lost to anime amounted to around 3 hours every week.
2. TV - There are two programs I've followed throughout this recent period (let's call it greyscalefuzz's search firm times): The Amazing Race and Heroes. Whenever possible, I download both shows from bittorrent sites and collectively, they amount to almost 1hr and 40 mins away from more productive work as well. I still like TAR's reality show concept (comes from my travel bug syndrome) and Heroes is just simply mindblowing for its plotlines.
3. Interviews - and the preparation for them also took up time in April. While the 1st two months of the year were a drought where interviews were concerned, March and April brought a bit of a windfall in interviews. I met 5 companies for interviews (some leading to a 2nd round) even while juggling the possiblity of accepting the rabbit hole job. :) It was good to be desired, but only one other job came to a conversion. There is no way to estimate the time spent here though.
4. Other distractions - I surfed voraciously in April (my search history shows this) and this also meant much of my downtime (while not at work) was spent reading stuff off the Internet. Topics ranged form Spartan history on Wikipedia to recaps of TAR on Television without Pity. Engaging content on the web abounds - I will never read it all!
5. Oh yes, there is also The Gym. Since I signed up for a gym membership, I've been working out twice a week (almost religiously). This is a new thing on my calendar and has amounted to 3 hours in The Gym. The Gym is a noisy dancefloor music haven with hunky dudes pumping iron and gym bunnies in 2 piece attires prancing around. Eye candy aside, it also has too many gay guys (getting checked out in the shower room is the usual norm, especially when it came time to wrap the towel around the waist).

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So the rabbit hole goes deep: I know little about what I've gotten myself into, but it is a reality I am happy to explore for a while (if just for 3 months, so be it). Beats the uncertainty of recruitment. :)

PS: Give me a shout if you're are in Melbourne!

The Great Recap Episode, Part 2

Avid anime fans will know what I am talking about when I mention Sunrise Studio.

Sunrise is the studio behind your blockbuster anime hits like Gundam Seed (and its less watchable sequel Gundam Seed Destiny), Mai Hime, Mai Otome and the currently airing Code Geass. Sunrise's anime are populated by a huge cast of characters, all with particular quirks and very distinct personalities.

Sunrise's anime plots are also riddled with fantastical plot twists and one can expect intense emotion (sometimes) from the characters within. Whether it be mechas, magical girls or harems, Sunrise will manage to make any story seem like you're watching an opera (or space opera in the case of Gundam).

But for all its merits, Sunrise has this one huge flaw which is inexcusable: the cheap use of the recap episode. The typical Sunrise anime will be so full of plot twists that the studio despairs over its fanbase losing track of the shenanigans and exploits played out on TV. 'The fans cannot be left behind! They must be periodically updated on what has gone on!'

What spawns from this line of reasoning is the oh-so-often use of that bane known as the Recap Episode. After approximately 10 episodes, Sunrise feels 'obliged' to let its fans have the Recap Episode: its simply a rehash of already aired episodes, edited to look like a summary of the plot highlights, with a voice over to make it all uber-serious (and also to mask the fact that they reused images and scenes). The real fans know though that it is another Sunrise cop-out: the studio is just saving money and stretching the season for what it's worth.

In other words... a sell out (to the hardcore fans, at least).

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Any blog that has been around long enough (and is read often enough) will have been trolled through a search engine, RSS feed aggregator or something similar. I guess my blog is no exception, and since I've started using StatCounter, I've been able to see the search keywords which have led unsuspecting readers to my blog.

Since a free account on StatCounter did not allow me to keep more than a hundred recorded 'pings', I've been diligently keeping a record of the keywords offline. Bloggers out there often have one of those posts where they 'exhibit' these keywords, make funny observations about some of them, and generally boast about their perceived readership (how they get such grandiose notions from the keywords that led to their site is a mystery).

For myself, I guess I am no exception. Therefore, like in any Sunrise anime, my recap post is meant to highlight some of those posts that inadvertently drew the most hits from search engines (the keywords are in italics; my comments are below):

1. The MarkStrat one

"secret of markstrat online"
- this one sounds like a kungfu manual

"how i won markstrat"
- future b-school bestseller if this ever gets written

"what can i apply in real world from what i learnt in markstra"
- in brief: nothing

"markstrat blog"
"markstrat cheat"
- tsk tsk tsk...

"secrets to be successful in the markstrat game"
- there are none: you already have them

"tricks for markstrat"
"hints for markstrat"
- how about hooray for markstrat?

"markstrat wisdom"
- wise indeed...

Sometime last year during my MBA, I did this elective called Market Driving Strategies that is really about all of us playing a simulation called MarkStrat. It proved frustrating to the losing teams playing it that most of us were looking for ways and means to turn things around. I wrote a couple of posts about it.

Little did I expect that there were others like myself out there who had little idea what was going on. But, unlike them, it never occurred to me to troll the blogs for hints on how to win MarkStrat. Some guys did though as is evident above.

In fact, I get most of my random one-time hits from people trolling the net for MarkStrat hints. These guys are quite desperate if they think anyone out there has the answer for them. What's little understood is that MarkStrat isn't about winning it: it's about learning from it (even while losing).

Link to MarkStrat post

2. The Ice Cream Case

"ice-fili what happened"
- you really want to know? You REALLY wanna KNOW???

"wtp ice fili"
- I'm not willing to pay a single cent, mind you. WTP = Willingness to Pay

"ice-fili mba case"
"strategy for ice fili"
- Sell, sell, sell... oh wait that was in March, Buy, buy, buy

"ice-fili advantage"
- phick... phock... phick... game, set, match, ice-fili.

Ice-Fili is this Russian ice cream company that is an interesting example of a former government-owned enterprise rising out of the ashes of the Cold War. The case was written with detailed data and enough information with which to teach a Strategy 101 course.

All your strategy concepts can be covered with the material: Willingness-to-Pay, Value Chain, Cost-to-Serve, Value Delivered, Competitive Advantage, Value Innovation, Five Forces, etc.

Being an oft-used case, I guess there are other b-schoolers out there who troll the net for any information they can glean about it.

That is, again, a problem: there should be no additional information needed to understand the case. The case is written to be self-contained. If any information were to be used at all, it should already be within the case itself.

Anyhow, for the Dec '06ers, Ice-Fili was a bad reminder of a badly taught course: our entire Strategy course was based on that ONE case, to the point where we even had our exam on it. Not one of us was interested in ice cream for a while after...

Link to Ice-Fili post

3. The Great Casino Debate

"seah chiang nee tragedy and the casino debate little speck"
- poor Seah Chiang Nee...

"IR parliament house balakrishnan"
"Vivian Balakrishnan"
- Singapore's favourite eye surgeon became Singapore's least favourite sell-out

"IMPACT OF JACKPOT TAKINGS WITH THE SET-UP OF IR IN SINGAPORE"
- none at all I'm sure... your SAFRA clubs are safe because the uncles and aunties won't be able to afford the entrance fee

"chia teck leng"
"chia teck leng christianity"
- rotting in jail now...

"singaporeans spent at turf club"
- ... to see horses run in circles

"legalized gambling deontology"
- 3 words you'll seldom see next to each other

"Parliamentary speech by Khaw"
- hear ye, hear ye

"legal age for gambling on cruise ships"
- probably lower than the legal age to have sex

"casino AND integrated resort"
- Yes... one and the same, only in Singapore

"effect erosion in genting malaysia"
- not something a non-geologist like me will talk about

"social responsibility activities of genting"
- check back again in your next life

"IR debates in Singapore"
- now we're talking

The extent to which Singaporeans were interested in articles on the casino / IR issue surprised me, even when it is no longer a topic of discussion.

To put things in perspective, I wrote my Ethics essay on the Great Casino Debate in Dec 2006, a whole year and some since the debate raged in parliament and in the media. And prior to the debate, even, the idea was mooted by government leaders, there were hushed whispers about it happening, and there occurred the great hullabaloo about calling them Integrated Resorts (for political reasons).

In any case, I am heartened to find folks out there still looking for information on the IR debate. My own research was based on articles I trolled off the net (most were dutifully referenced and noted in the essay).

The strange thing is that, when the debate was at its most intense, it was already a moot issue: the powers that be had already made the decision. The post-decision consultation was just that: all talk. Hot air for the sake of respectability perhaps.

I hope the debate served as that point in Singaporean history where its people finally understood that they have been hoodwinked by a government that is, up till now, still unwilling to listen without first making up its mind. Things must change. Things will.

Link to Essay on the Great Casino Debate

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Next week: Another recap episode! This time, I want to go into the funnier and less often observed keywords that have led to greyscalefuzz. Stay tuned!

Letters from Bukit Timah / Frags of our Brothers

I was fortunate to be invited to attend a talk by Singapore's eminent economist, Dr Tan Kee Wee. Dr Tan is the Lilian Too of investors: while Lilian tells you what the stars have to say about the future economy, Dr Tan is more "specific" and "down to earth" in his speculations... i.e. he builds and uses econometric models to predict the future. In a nutshell, Dr Tan might be what you describe as a macroeconomic fortune teller.

Dr Tan's presentations are titled Investment Outlook Seminars and he has been doing them for a long while - Singaporean investors do listen to this sage and act upon his advice. However, what Dr Tan really does well is not tell people what to invest in; what he's good at is in explaining the intricate links between macroeconomic forces and current affairs, and why the world is in the funk it is in because of whose actions. It is a Macroeconomics 101 class that is a tour-de-force through the world shaping economic events of this century.

To illustrate his presentation, he uses movie themes. His theme this time round was inspired by Clint Eastwood's WW2 opus: Letters from Iwo Jima (which follows Flags of Our Fathers). With tongue firmly in cheek (Ed Note: I hate this phrase, but it is just so apt), Dr Tan titles his presentation 'Letters from Bukit Timah'. Following from here, I shall talk about what I understood of Dr Tan's presentation (which was interesting, humorous and a macro refresher for myself).

2006 was a year marked by a further ascent in the Chinese and Indian economies. In effect, the rise of the 2 nations are part of a bigger force known as Globalisation. As with any world moving force, there are both winners and losers in its wake. The winners are your i-bankers and MNC CEOs, who are laughing all the way to the bank because they can all buy low and sell high, that all-important principle. The losers are actually the low wage earners and workers of this world. While productivity has improved, wages have not followed suit. Tough luck workers.

Global Liquidity

Why has the world been able to globalise? It is all due to a phenomenon known as Global Liquidity (see this article to understand what it is; see this blog to know why it's a big deal). in a nutshell, global liquidity results in the world being flushed with too much money (none of which is going to people like you and I though). There were two factors that led to this situation:

1. The sinking of the Nikkei index - the Japanese economy tanked in the early 1990s (from its 40,000 high) and never recovered since then. What the central bank of Japan did was to lower interest rates in response, in the hope of stimulating entrepreneurship and investments (FDI). These macroeconomists all think we are motivated by borrowing rates: the lower it is, the more enticed we are to borrow money to start a business. However, what the lowered interest rates resulted in was a practise known as carry trade, whereby Morgan Stanleyish hawks borrowed in yen (cheaply, because the interest rate is low in Japan) and lend the borrowed funds in a high-interest currency, like perhaps the USD (at that point).

2. The dot-com crash - this had an effect because Alan Greenspan, at that time still Chairman of the Federal Reserves, decided to lower interest rates in the U.S. as well. For what reason? See factor number 1. What Greenspan inadvertently caused though was to make money 'cheap'. With borrowing rates low, the multiplier effect does its part in making more money available in the financial world.

To curb the effects that his action has caused, Greenspan has raised the rates again (this as of 2005 I think), but the effect of that won't be felt until much later. Therefore, the world as it is now is still enjoying (or suffering, depending on your point of view) the effects of global liquidity.

So what happens with money being so liquid is that the developing countries of the world, particularly your biggies like China and India, have a whole lot of USD in their pockets. A country like China is scared to be holding on to too much USD though. Why? Because buying too much USD with RMB will cause the RMB to rise, which will make its goods expensive, which will lower its exports, which means less income (ad infinitum as macroeconomic reasoning goes). So China uses its USD to buy US treasury bonds: low yield but stable returns. This is what every other emerging Asian economy does with its USD, to peg its currency artificially to the USD without causing its goods to cost more. Local Asian banks can thus keep their mortgage rate low and trigger what? You guessed it: property speculation (but that's another story...)

The Dominant Currency and Why no Hyperinflation

Come now to 2007 and we all start wondering why doomsday theorists all think this liquidity is supposedly a bad think. They naysaying economists all say so because too much money leads to that unhealthy economic phenomenon known as hyperinflation (my view of hyperinflation is that it is what makes the money we own as good as toilet paper, and I am not being lyrical here). However, we have not seen hyperinflation occur: Dr Tan says this is because all the money is being held by the ultra-rich (hence we are all not rich; hence we don't over-buy stuff and raise the demand curve; hence prices don't rise; ad infinitum reasoning ala macroeconomic theorists).

So... while there won't likely be hyperinflation (and you can bet your pants that the Fed will do all it can to prevent this by...... raising interest rates), there also won't be an alternative currency emerging anytime soon. The currency of the world is the USD.

Do you know why? Wow, Dr Tan's explanation of this conspiracy (it IS a conspiracy I tell you) totally blew me away. First thing you need to know was that, following WW2, the Bretton Woods Conference resulted in exchange rates around the world to be pegged to the USD, which was at that time based on the gold standard (i.e. you can buy USD and use it, at that time, to exchange for a fixed amount of gold... from Fort Knox I assume). What this did was to make the USD stable as a currency of choice: the European central banks love it, the Colombian drug barons love it even more.

The subsequent collapse of the gold standard and depegging of currencies did not diminish the dominance of the USD though: this was because another some Republican president had, by that time, convinced Saudi Arabia (and subsequently all of OPEC) to sell its oil in USD, and in USD solely. What to do? The oil-producing nations only want USD for their oil, therefore the economies of the world have to hoard USD to buy oil.

Okay, enough of a diversion into the USD as dominant currency. Serious contenders to this useless throne have been the Euro and, previously, the Yen. There might come a day though when the Chinese Yuan may prove to be THE world currency, but that won't be anytime soon (they don't want it either).

Bad for US, Good for ROW (Rest of the World)

So Dr Tan gazes into his crystal ball of an econometric model (200-300 equations of it; according to him, central bank models have >500 equations in their simulations). He predicts that a recession will hit the US in the 3rd quarter of 2007. To most economists, the recession has been looming for long enough: a treasury bond yield curve inversion has been observed for the last one year (see this article for an explanation of the power of this indicator). It is inevitable that it will happen sometime this year.

However, unlike the previous US recessions, emerging economies won't suffer alongside. Why? Because the US is no longer the main market for their goods and services. The world has shifted from doing business with the US to doing business with China and India. Most world trade is nowadays transacted with the Chinese and the Indians. Therefore, a US recession is unlikely to have the same repercussions as before.

On Singapore, Dr Tan says 'go for the champions'. The champs are your pharmaceuticals, financial services firms, building and construction firms (he always says there is a housing bubble building up... we're in the middle of a housing rush), the gaming industry (IR anyone?) and even something like the F1 (yay it's coming here!).

Sidetrack: Do you know that the Singapore economy is engineered to encourage you to SPEND? Spending stimulates the economy and it is what keeps a recession at bay (Macroeconomics 101 stuff). However, there are artificially designed laws which makes us spenders on a cyclical basis: COEs, which make a new car old every 10 years means that you WILL buy a car every decade; en-bloc sales, whereby property values will reach an optimum point every 30 years, this means property must be sold after 30 years (or it will depreciate). The Gahmen... it is very smart indeed.

WAR!

Dr Tan also thinks that there will be war in 2007. Who vs who? This is too easy: the US will attack Iran. (yup, this is starting to sound like a coffeehouse chat, but it REALLY is an economist giving his predictions here).

The big event of 2007 will be the US attacking Iran. The reasons?

1. Iran might have capability to develop nuclear weapons / it has too much influence over Iraq (civil war) / it can choke the Hormuz Straits etc. These are all very familiar doomsday theories which all have their inkling of truth.

2. The more wild reason is that the US wants to do that to protect the USD. Again I was floored by the reasoning, but it made some sense. Oil is sold in USD but there have been detractors in recent history. Prior to the 2nd Iraqi war, Baghdad started to sell oil in Euros. Of course, they got invaded and went back to the USD market.

Teheran has decided of late that it also wants to set up a euro-based oil exchange. This caused alarm bells to go off in Washington, leading to calls for an overthrow of the regime (and here we all think it's all cos the Americans are anti-Islamist).

But why protect the USD? Dr Tan's macroeconomic brain goes into overdrive at this point and explains how the US actually taxes the world economy through the depreciation of the USD. At this point, I thought it was a little too cheem to understand (and google / wikipedia aren't helping here, so I'll save the theory for examination another day).

So... do look forward to the next couple of months to be an interesting time in the Gulf: plenty of missiles in the sky, for sure.

Buy and Sell

Finally, Dr Tan gets to the part where all the crusty Singaporean uncles in the room wake up and prick up their ears: what to do and when.

Dr Tan says:

1. Don't hold the USD... it is going to weaken.

2. Gold is good. Buy gold. It is cheap and it won't depreciate crazily like that stupid paper called money.

3. If you can buy uranium, go buy and hoard it. Prices will go up. (So will your radioactivity and geiger meter count)

4. Buy bonds. But be careful what bonds you buy cos there're a lot of junk bonds floating around. Avoid these. SG government bonds are good though (even with the crappy return)

5. Avoid US stocks - they are weakening. Uncle Sam is like the plague. Buy Chinese stocks. Buy Indian stocks. The stock exchange indices are on a path to the moon and are not looking back (yet). So buy these. In Singapore, go buy trusty Singtel: Dr Tan says it should hit 4 bucks end of the year.

6. Only buy high-end property, not your crappy HDB flat. Also, avoid ulu places like Seng Kang and Yew Tee: they won't be going en bloc in your lifetime, guaranteed. Always always always (and always) look for condos with en bloc potential.

7. And finally... in summary, Sell in March, Buy in June.

And so concludes Dr Tan's investment outlook.



Notes:
1. Lilian Too is a famous geomancer in Malaysia who popularised the art of Feng Shui. She's also an astute businesswoman who profits from selling (IMHO useless) knick-knacks to boost your luck.
2. You can listen to a podcast of an earlier presentation of the same information at this website.
3. Dr Tan's profile and other information regarding his presentation can be found here.
4. Some of the views expressed here are my own and not Dr Tan Kee Wee's. However, all failed attempts at dramatization are Dr Tan's fault - wah lau... don't you think it's corny that he called his talk 'Letters from Bukit Timah'?

The Great Recap Episode, Part 1

I guess it is a little late to do one of those New Year's posts. In Dec 2006, it's all fine to talk about how 2006 went for you. In Jan 2007, it's even more poignant to recall the good and bad times that rolled by. By Feb 2007, nobody really cares anymore (they're all smashed by CNY and Valentine's Day).

When it is well into 2007 (March?), nobody writes such retrospective tripe anymore - people just look forward rather than back.

Anyhey, I've got my recap tripe penned away (in longhand and in succinct point form) in my notebook since early Jan 2007. It's no good sitting in that notebook, which is now awash with scribbly blue script, mostly of soundbites captured during interviews that I conducted, and some of those itty-bitty common sense that wise men (and women) dish out to me.

Since it has no place in a notebook (of scribbly throwaway tripe), it shall go somewhere with at least a possibility of some longevity: here on this blog.

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So what defines 2006 for me? We'll go with the following categories.

Places I visited
2006 was the year I visited the most countries ever! (in a single year that is). Of course, my log of visited countries comes nowhere close to the typical INSEADer - crazy travellers, all of them, especially when they descended on Asia - it still meant a watershed in terms of places seen (and money spent).

Where was I last year? In no particular order: Cambodia, France, UK, India, Holland, Thailand, Belgium, Spain, the Czech Republic, Luxembourg, Malaysia, and early in 2007 the Philippines. I was also briefly in the UAE (twice), but that was only in the cavernous Dubai airport (I never got out of there). Also, most of the time, I only visited one city (or the capital city) in the above-mentioned countries. The one with the most visited cities will probably be France, since there was significant driving through much its countryside during my 4 months or so there.

Personal Life
2006 was an upheaval. I gained new friends, and tragically lost a love and lost my grandmother as well. I learnt what it was to manipulate people, and what it felt like to be manipulated as well - I've never felt more used, and I've never been more cunning.

But alas, I never learnt the lesson of guarding one's heart. I've never learnt to harden myself and innure myself against hurt and sorrow. Guess that's why I get hurt and why I sometimes am afraid to care about others. (Ed note: don't write this kind of thing when you know who might read this blog... but who cares right?)

Friends
A year with significant time out of town = less time with friends I've come to loved and cherished. Sure, there were new friends to be had, but I don't think that friendships which lasted for less than a year seriously count: such relationships did not go through that test called TIME. I've lost touch with some good friends, but being home (and somewhat homebound now) has helped build back some of these relationships.

Side note: I felt touched to be invited to a few weddings for this year... it is wonderful when you haven't really spoken to someone in over a year, and the next thing you get is a wedding invitation. Touched.

On another note: For a brief period, my friends were doing the wedding thingy on me: invitations left / right / centre with nary a month to catch my breath. Now, they're doing the kiddy pwn on me: at least 5 friends in the last one year actively made babies (and said bye bye to their sex lives for awhile!), with a couple in the midst of pregnancy and the rest losing sleep and mulling over creative names for birth certificates. Good luck Moms and Dads!

Gawd I'm sooooo jealous of all of you.

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And what of resolutions for 2007? A bit late when it is March to make such pronouncements, but these were heartfelt determined inclinations when they were first penned in Jan:

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Strictly speaking, there are no resolutions. None.

I do have things which I feel I want to achieve for myself in the year 2007. Some personal goals perhaps. However, I do not think that telling myself that I have the resolve to do it in the beginning of the year will mean that I actually do them by the end of the year. It simply means that I don't want to do a self-non-fulfilling proclamation (it's like the self-fulfilling prophecy, but in reverse and applied to meaningless forgettable New Year utterances)

I'll tell you what I feel is a much better approach. Dear readers of my blog (all 10 of you, more or less!), I give you, below, my HOPES for the year 2007:

1) I hope for a job that I can excel in. I hope to see this job for its +ves rather than its -ves. I hope that my work life gets defined by its positive aspects more than its negative aspects, and that I come to appreciate the better aspects of it. (this comes from always having adopted the worst case scenario / outcome outlook with my previous job, which is just SO depressing)

2) I hope to mend fences. Fences with my ex. Fences with people I have offended in the past.

Speaking of which, a particular girl I hope to mend fences with is... ah, let's just say it is this GIRL. Said girl was annoyed by a particular late night activity of mine (which involved me barging into her flat at untold hours of the night demanding to deposit unowned articles of hers while unwillingly letting me in unwittingly witness her in her unflattering PJs - some friends will know who!), and thereafter, showed me what it felt like to get the Subtle Cold Shoulder.

Her style of the Subtle Cold Shoulder was to employ the Photo-Taking Exclusion Principle. Suppose you are in the vicinity of said girl and another girl / guy / whatever. Said girl is your typical camwhore (who isnt?) lugging that ubiquitous digicam on a string around to the whatever event that you're both at. The Photo-Taking Exclusion Principle that she employs will mean that you will SOMEHOW end up helping her take pictures, or be in the vicinity when pictures of her (and whoevers) are being taken, without YOU ever being invited to be in any of them (for more clarification on what it feels to be a victim of this phenomenon, take a look at my theory on the Sour Grapes Syndrome).

By the way, as of March 2007, I think I've mended fences somewhat with said girl.

3) I hope to learn to dance. Rather than just sway to the beat, or spasm on the dancefloor, or tap my foot, it'll be great if I can actually sashay instead. Salsa will probably be the way to go on this, but I do prefer going with someone I know though.

Ed Note: I'm afraid I'm putting this on hold for the moment while I get over this gymming phase-craze I'm currently into.

4) I hope to travel, and I hope to travel at someone else's expense, i.e. I don't spend anything on airfare, food, lodging. I guess this means I get a job and get paid to go places (and hopefully sneak off once in a while to shoot pictures!). I hope to see more of this wonderful world, and I hope to document more of what I see in pictures. I hope and I hope and I hope of all things that this will be something that can actually happen in 2007.

5) Of course, I always hope to write more - and to perhaps also explore whether I have any aptitude in this area. I love to put my thoughts on paper (online more than on paper these days). The problem is that I don't exactly have an 'angle', nor do I stand out amidst the rabble of bloggers out there (ranting and raving their very best). It's like, people blog about somewhat particular niches of experiences, while I talk about all and sundry (and dirty laundry to boot). So while this remains a hope, it is something I hope to have a little recognition for.

I can hope, can't I?

Happy 2007 (3 months in)



Notes:
1. Getting the Subtle Cold Shoulder (SCS) is a little unlike the Cold Shoulder. Getting the Subtle Cold Shoulder is like being in a social situation with the SCS-deliverer (and some other friends) who, through her actions / words / body language, cut you out of the pack you both hang out with. This is usually done in such an undetected manner that both victim and the pack don't come to realise it until the victim start feeling left out (in certain social proceedings, one of which is the camwhoring).
2. The Photo-Taking Exclusion Principle (PTEP) is applied whenever a group photo is being taken, and a particular member or 2 of the group is excluded from it, usually intentionally. The principle is sometimes applied for practical purposes (the group is too large to fit in the shot, someone is not present at supposed group activity), but is on occasion a hint of the Subtle Cold Shoulder being applied. Group-camwhoring is one of those social occasions when PTEP can rear its ugly head, particularly weeks down the road when pockets of the group get together to view photos (on the yearbook, Flickr, albums, wherever); the excluded often feel pangs of unease at being unphotoed.
3. Yes, I do like to come up with stupid, silly acronyms to describe social situations which probably don't happen to everybody. But hey, it's my blog right? That argument always wins. :)

Relationship X Expectation = Happiness

The ultimate pursuit is that of happiness.

Don't let the religious change your mind about that: I do agree that there is none nobler a purpose than the pursuit of God and the expansion of his flock. But good missionaries are generally also happy missionaries, and ultimately, they pursue God's plan because they are happy to do so. Therefore, and again I say it, the ultimate pursuit is that of happiness. (Caveat: ultimate human pursuit of a non-spiritual nature)

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Of all the things that can make a person unhappy, I think the one that occurs the most often is that feeling of 'Being Left Out'. It's what I call the Sour Grapes Syndrome (SGS), though it doesn't always have to refer to contempt towards things we cannot get. And to explain it, I need to go into the concept of sociability and groups.

We human beings are sociable creatures and we seek other like minded individuals to form groups - it is a way for us to satisfy one of the following needs / urges: the need to validate one's existence on this planet; the urge to build bonds with another, find a soulmate, seek a friend or partner; the need to find others like ourselves; the urge to do things together with others of the same persuasion; and so on.

When we form groups (typically consisting of two or more people) bonds are built between individuals. In a 2 person group, there is only one bond; with 3 people there are 3 bonds; with 4 people there are 6 bonds; and the permutations increase exponentially the more people there are in a group.

We, therefore, find ourselves in a complex tangle of relationships when group sizes balloon. Some bonds will be stronger than others, and therefore, some of us will feel closer to one person over another.

So now, imagine that you belong in a group of 20 or so people. There are some 4 or 5 people who are pretty tight and you think that you are in that small circle of 4-5 people. You expect that, whenever these 4-5 people plan any activities, you will be invited along (because you feel... 'tight' with them). Unfortunately, your expectations do not quite meet up to their expectations of you: one or two of them don't feel that 'tight' with you.

Suppose then that those one or two (let's call them Amy and Amanda) decide to organise a small get-together over dinner. Amy calls Amanda, and they decide to invite the others within their perceived tight group. Both Amy and Amanda feel that you aren't quite as 'tight' with them and thereby omit you from their invitations (which they send via SMS, email, whatever). And woe betide calamitous Jane (Ed note: shites, where did that phrase come from?) YOU happen to learn of the non-invite.

What do you feel? You feel left out. Jealous. You feel like all you've ever put into those bonds you've built were meaningless. You feel upset that Amy and Amanda never felt 'tight' enough with you.

Sour Grapes Syndrome. Half of those times when we feel unhappy, I think we can attribute it to that feeling of being left out, the feeling that we were meant for good things but were deprived of them because someone else felt we were not worthy.

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I am sure you've liked someone before.

Let's suppose you are a guy.

And you like this girl called Amelie.

You get close to Amelie, as others who are attracted attempt the same thing too.

Amelie isn't seeing anyone in particular, and you fancy your chances as being better than most.

One day, Amelie suggests that you both catch a particular movie that you both are interested in.

You agree. You are on Cloud #9 because the girl of your dreams has asked you out on a date. You're ecstatic and looking forward to the opportunity to clutch her hand / lend her your jacket to keep her warm / offer your shoulder to cry on during the weepy scenes / have your arm gripped tightly as she scream her lungs out when terror strikes.

So you show up at the appointed time, at the appointed place. Happy and looking forward to quality time with your object of affection.

Except that it isn't just with her. It is with her and her whole posse of other hanger-ons / best buds / bitchy girlfriends / brother / sister / dog.

Suffice to say, it is not a date. It is more akin to an outing.

You aren't happy. Why?

Because you expected a date with the girl you like. Not a freaking group outing with her other best friend or sister or third cousin. It is worser still when it is a competitor or another more interesting guy.

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Expectations we built have a direct effect on our own happiness. When we get what we expect to get, when things go the way we want them to, we tend to be happier individuals.

Relationships too have a way of making us happy or unhappy. Relationships are also a function of the groups we form for ourselves - and what we feel about the relationships in our lives (the expectations) tend to colour how happy we are about those relationships.

Be realistic in how you feel about the people in your life. I think happiness comes from knowing that nobody out there is responsible for making you happy - only you yourself are capable of that.

You are capable of that because only YOU are able to manage your own expectations.

Golf Ga-Ga

1. Golf is a game about achieving perfection. I think this is the reason why top level executives (and many others who strive to be one of them, those wannabes) are so attracted to the beautiful game: because it is a game that requires perfection in order to succeed.

2. There are so many levels to how golf tests the perfectionist, chief among which is 'The Swing'. The way one swings a golf club determines the ball's trajectory. In the case of a beginner at the driving range (yours truly being one), about 1 out of 5 times, the ball flies in a somewhat agreeable arc. The rest of the time, one of the following happens: the ball limps and rolls away awkwardly; the ball whacks into the lane divider violently and announces your terrible golf skills for all to hear; the ball flies too far left or too far right of where you intend it to go; or you miss entirely and subsequently pretend that you were just doing a dry run of a swing.

3. Golf gear is designed by Darth Vader. Really. Just wearing my golf glove alone makes me feel like a Stormtrooper:


Now, all I need are White / Black golf shoes, and an uber-cool Stormtrooper helmet to complete the look. :)

4. Hitting that perfect swing is an indescribable feeling: the word that comes closest is 'SHIOK' (non-Singaporean readers, click the link, go pick up some Singlish). And when the club connects with the ball in the right way, a satisfying sound is emitted 'PUCK', the ball flies in the right trajectory (a low curve for the 7-iron, a high curl for the pulling wedge, and that far far away feeling with the 5-wood)... in other words, perfection. It is so intoxicatingly sweet to have hit 'the spot' that one feels willing to give up sex forever if he can keep hitting balls that way... forever and ever.

5. And that's where we come to the point where I think golf is... a 'symbol' for sex. In this game, you play with a club (a somewhat phallic thing, don't you think?) and swing it around using both your hands; you hit balls; you 'score' when you get your ball into a hole; some of your clubs are known as woods - no, not Tiger we're talking about here, but those golf clubs you wrap in socks - and the woods are typically 'bulbous' and you have to frequently wrap them in 'protective gear'; the golf course is littered with obstacles like sand traps and water hazards - much like how the pursuit of sex is laden with booby traps of its own; golf courses are designed to be undulating slopes - which mimic the sinuous curves of the alluring female; oh... I can go on and on.

6. Picking up golf has only been possible because I am currently single. Being a singleton has its advantages: I can indulge in more meaningless usage of my time - not that whacking balls at the driving range is meaningless, mind you, but in comparison to quality time with the significant other, whacking golf balls can pale in comparison as a better use of scarce resources (as time goes). Worser still if your significant other cannot appreciate the activity, and worser still if she cannot see why it supercedes time spent cuddling, kissing, and... shit, I'm seriously lacking affection. :(

Suckers

The first principle in any relationship, work, or life in general rests on the fact that we are governed by the rule of reciprocity.

When you have an appreciation for that rule, you can generally extrapolate from that and come to a fair understanding of the state of human relationships.

Reciprocity is the principle that when you give, you receive. You do me a favour, and I do one for you in return. It is mostly an unsaid, unmentioned rule - largely because if you've lived by it all your life, you should never have to bring up the fact that you expect anything less than that. Also, decorum dictates that we do not embarrass another by 'asking' to be reciprocated: typically, a hint suffices.

So how does reciprocity work? There are a few ways, the simplest of it is this: you do something for another, you expect something in return, probably of a similar value (monetary or in kind, that is entirely up to you to judge). Suppose that, today, I pay for your meal. Tomorrow, you'll pay for mine, particularly if it comes to something similar in value. I won't bring up the fact that I had paid for your meal, because it is an unwritten rule that you should reciprocate, and of course there is the expectation that you will do 'what is right'.

Reciprocity also works in the 'negative' sense as well. If you kill my brother, I will want to kill you - i.e. revenge, vengeance. Vengeance is but reciprocity, but expressed in a negative manner.

Naturally, most of us understand the power of this social contract; to violate it will cause discomfort and unease, and only people in love or people so religiously compelled won't expect reciprocation from another individual. And why do I say that it is the base rule for most human relationships?

Take any situation where there is a giving or taking involved and explore it for a second: see if you find an exchange between the parties involved. E.g. the buskers on the street singing / dancing for all to see: you see them sing, feel a twinge of appreciation / pity / and thereby feel compelled to do something to make that feeling 'go away'; and thereby, you drop in a few cans in that tin can, hoping to ease the guilt / show your appreciation / .

However, reciprocity works best under the 'Best Left Unsaid' rule: it is most powerful when the expectation is not communicated, but inherently required; it is weakest when violaters of the rule find a way around it.

Reciprocity is not a well-understood principle for those in love, those who are loved, and the many shades of love that colour the space between.

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If you understand what I mean by that principle, then you will understand where I'm coming from when I talk about what I want to next...

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A while back, when I felt bad about having stopped blogging, I mentioned that I wanted to write a post about succubi. I've changed my mind somewhat about what I wanted to say on that topic.

Largely speaking, I think the idea behind being a succubus is that being one violates the reciprocity principle because there is one party willing to give (the lovesick fool most likely), and one party culpable and capable of leeching (the beneficiary).

The theme is all too familiar to people who have fallen for the likes of, among others, gold diggers, irresistibly beautiful women, the aloof characters, and all manners spanning the various categories.

I find that women who are incapable of giving are attractive (and that, in part, has been my failing). They demand your time, your energy, and have an inordinate ability to consume more of either. Like the drug addict in The Protege (Ed note: great drama, go see), they'll say anything to get what they can from you (within limits - I exaggerate the extent of their machinations of course).

I don't think it is that such women are incapable of loving others; I just think that they cannot love another more than they love themselves. Like the narcissist who falls in love with his own reflection, their sole purpose in life is self-gratification. The love for themselves compel them to find others who can shower love upon them - it is a means by which they find meaning for their pithy existence. It is the only they have the assurance that they are not loving themselves solely, but that there are others who feel they're worthy of love too.

However, the inability to give to others is what fails for the succubus: she takes and is unable to give in return, in a suitable way or for a suitable amount. The relationship with a succubus is doomed because the giver (lovefool) has expectations, and these expectations being unmet will generate discontent. Ultimately, there comes a point where discontent leads to hate, and leads to ill will.

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I have the notion that people can change. I have also a probably naive notion that people can change for love. I don't necessarily mean romantic love though, for love exists in many forms and ways (and Valentine's Day should have brought home that point, both with the singletons and the couplings out there).

I don't think love changes people as much as the giver (lovefool) wants to, and for that, humans are such failures. Perhaps this is also the reason why some find religion to be the perfect escape: when one has received love unconditionally, what else is there to ask for from another uncaring human being?

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In retrospect, I have learnt little from loving others, except to know that I have also been one to give too little in return - perhaps what I see in myself has been reflected in what I see in others. In all too real a manner, I have surrounded myself with people that I know are a reflection of my true nature. In so doing, I have never felt more alone.

I have never felt more like an island, adrift.

History Lessons

It is seldom that I blog about movies that I've watched. To escape the mundanity that was existence today, I sneaked off with a good buddy (out on an afternoon birthday treat away from work) to watch a movie about, of all things, dealing with the harsh reality of existence.

Ah, I'm being too harsh a critic. Half Nelson is a nice little film about a history teacher cum basketball coach who's also a drug addict. He teaches history primarily through the use of dialectics, the idea that opposing forces drive change, and history is about change.

The film also tracks his friendship with one of his students, a black girl who is quite self-reliant, and whose friendship with a drug courier shapes the other half of the plot. While the teacher descends into a drug-fueled life plunge just to escape a reality that he cannot change (even while he preaches it), the student finds herself confused into helping her brother's friend run drugs (it didn't help for her to also find out her teacher's a druggie).

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Anyhow, that is the plot. Oh, and lead actor Ryan Gosling is nominated for Best Actor for the Academy Awards (who won last year? I don't recall).

For me, what was more interesting was to hear about the notion of dialectics (Check out this very simple to understand website to read about Dialectics - they even make references to the film).

To understand change, Dialectics philosophers preach that there are 3 rules (Ryan Gosling above has just written down the first one for his class):

1. Every object and process is made of opposing forces or opposing sides: a historically relevant example for Singapore would be its independence from Malaysia. On one side, there is Lee Kuan Yew and the PAP, who do not want Singapore separated from Malaysia; on the other, there is Tunku Abdul Rahman and UMNO, who can't wait to get rid of the pain in the neck that is Singapore.

2. Gradual changes lead to turning points, where one opposite overcomes the other: Racial riots were rife in Singapore, fanned in part by accusations of unfair treatment of Malays in Singapore, while Chinese were incensed by the federal government's policy of affirmative action. Singapore was also economically better off - there was concern of a shift in economic power from the main capital of KL to Chinese-dominated Singapore. The turning point came when the Malaysian parliament voted to expel Singapore from Malaysia as a way of ending the racial riots and rid themselves of the problem once and for all.

3. Change moves in spirals, not circles: For Singapore, there was no turning back. The separation from Malaysia resulted in it moving in a direction that was of its own design, free of intervention from meddlesome Malaysia politicians. However, we see that the forces that drive us apart ultimately also bring us closer - but not to the point of re-unification. Through diplomatic efforts, one force (the force of 'unity') bring us closer again through better ties - economically, politically etc.

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I like this framework for change: I wished they had taught it in b-school or back in the consulting company I worked at. It would have made it easier to show people how system implementations are meant to change them (for good or for better, change is something to live with).

However, I don't think history's all about change: history is also about circumstances. Because of circumstances beyond our control, we are plunged into particular interesting crossroads in history. Because of circumstances which provides the power for one side to dominate another, that side can push change more effectively.

I think it is important to study change (or history for that matter) for the opposing forces there exist, the particular turning points (which is what leads to history teachers making us memorise meaningless dates), and the irrevocable but subtle movement of change in a spiral manner. It is also important to see why one side came to dominate another. It is also important to understand which circumstances made it possible for a change to occur.

Think about it.

Learning from Searching

It was a most unpleasant experience: Having to deal with another person's disappointment and being forced to be too honest.

While helping out in the search firm I'm currently in, I'm made to run interviews with job candidates often. I ran one today where the candidate was obviously not a fit for the position that was advertised: the misfit was not in the skillsets - the CV was good. The misfit was in the attitude and required behaviour of the candidate, who just did not have the right frame of mind I was looking for.

The candidate looked shifty and nervous. The candidate could not maintain eye contact. The candidate's body language conveyed her discomfort with the situation, and while I did my best to put her at ease, she distrusted me. The candidate hated search firms and what they do. The candidate had seen too much, been through too much nonsense and it showed.

Anyhow, I am learning new things while on my current job, and I've learnt a few things today:

1. It is possible to tell from a person's tone of voice certain characteristics and traits about him / her. I have to trust my guts / instincts more when being on a conversation over the phone. If it doesn't feel right, I should not have proceeded. The vibes that one feels do matter.

2. Over the phone, I could have also asked more questions: people are usually more willing to share information over the phone if they know it will save them time (case in point: a particular job seeker could have establised that it is unnecessary for her to come, because she lacks certain credentials, thus avoiding meeting up personally and finding out at the end that she isn't a fit at all).

3. I should not waste another person's time. He / she is willing to see me for a purpose, and that purpose cannot be compromised by me not having done my job well. If I had done my job well, the meeting (and perceived waste of time) could have been avoided.

4. I should never have mentioned the ugly word 'fit'. Fitting people may be the job I do, but if I mentioned that 'fit' was what I am looking for, it forces people that I see into uncomfortable ideas regarding their perceived performance.

Instead, Instead, Instead

I'm appalled at the state of English spelling on the Internet. Kids out there seem to have brought their IRC-speak into SMS-speak and eventually allowed all of that unintelligible nonsense become some form of netspeak.

I'm not complaining though: I'm guilty of using my own abbreviations and shortened words as well, but a google search I did a long time ago (back when I was thinking about applying to B-school) showed me something interesting about misspelling words. I googled "INSEAD" and when analysing the search results, I saw links to: INSEAD's various websites; newspaper articles referring to the school; the odd gushy blog post from alumni, participants or newbie; and a whole ton of unrelated pages trawled out by the fantastic search engine.

The unrelated pages all had ONE trait: on each and every one of them, the author of that page had mis-spelt the word "instead". Instead of typing "instead", their quick fingers missed the 'T'. It's probably one of those mistakes which are rather easy to miss when scanning for typos. When Google bolds each and everyone of those mistakes though, it can end up somewhat embarrassing to look at.

Fast forward to present day: I ran the search again in Google today and it turns out that the search engine's code has been updated - it looks for INSEAD in keywords, titles, and in articles where words such as 'B-school' and 'MBA' appear. Sure took them long enough to fix it - probably attributable to the recent spike in Google hirings at INSEAD.

For the heck of it, I also ran the same search through Technorati and Google's Blog Search. Technorati's 5th ranked search result was a typo (top 4 were INSEAD related). Blog Search did better: result #75 was its first typo related retrieval.

Moral of the story? Having a name that is one letter shy of an easily misspelt and often used word is probably not a good idea.

PS: Some folks here have made a business out of helping folks out there with misspelt translations. Interesting stuff, but INSEAD is unfortunately not a misspelling for 'instead'... it is a real-life B-school alas.

PSS: Some folks mentioned in this article cashes in on the spelling misfortunes of others to make that quick buck on eBay. Damn... I should have thought of that. Sure beats some of the stupid business ideas I've heard in B-school.

PSSS: I'm putting a lot more hyperlinks in my blog these days - it makes the Snap Preview so much cooler (I do have a nagging feeling though that some folks out there dislike having hyperlinks blow up like word bubbles in a comic book)